Mike Duffy aired a poll for the riding of Central Nova today which showed the Elizabeth May in third place, behind NDP candidate Louise Lorefice. Here are the results:
Conservative 44
NDP 25
Green 23
What was even more interesting, were the voter intentions of those who would have voted Liberal, had there been a Liberal candidate:
NDP 49
Conservative 25
Green 16
I wish the Liberals would step aside for the Greens in more ridings.
This data, lays the smackdown on so-called "strategic" voting sites that are telling residents of Central Nova to vote Green to stop Peter MacKay. What a sham those things are. Expect a whole post devoted to
I'll post a video of MDL when I find one.
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18 comments:
I can only assume that Ms. May will now step down in the riding of Central Nova to allow the NDP to defeat MacKay.
I started to write a "not so nice" comment, but I am not going to. I have followed Louise's race closely. She is more than a grandmother of 8 children in how the press like to describe her. She works for the Steven Lewis Foundation, and has worked for doctors without borders and other social and economic justice organizations.
As a retired teacher with 30 years experience, she taught many of the people in her area. She is well known and respected.
But moreover, she knows and understands the people who live in her riding. So she says they care about the environment but do to poverty and low employment opportunities their daily focus is on "survival." They are concerned with pocketbook issues that effect the day to day.
I will hope that the good folk in Central Nova vote for her. She would be a fine MP who would represent them and their needs well in Ottawa.
But see for yourself
Lorifice Ad
Interview with Louise Lorifice
Volunteer to help Lorifice
Go Lorifice - Central Novians would be so lucky!
I guess since Duff felt aggrieved and embarrassed nationally by May for finally taking him to task for being a Conservative shill (to which I note there was not too many NDP'ers approving.. what a shocker), he decided to commission something like this to get back at her.
And I'll not Erin, that a 25-23 is well within the MOE. May could just as easily be ahead of the NDP candidate as she is behind.
I actually thought it was funny to watch Duffy get called out by EMay.
With the strength of Lorifice (who has been treated deplorably by the press), and the poll that shows so much more of the Liberal vote going to the NDP than the Greens, I would say that it's fair to say that May is not really the one to beat MacKay.
The poll only includes decided voters. The NDP seems to have more room to grow with undecideds in the riding than the Greens.
When a Liberal says "vote strategically" it means vote for them - here in Edmonton Strathcona when they say it, we laugh.
"Real" strategic voting gives the NDP the advantage in Edmonton Strathcona, Edmonton East, but Liberals in Edmonton Centre. Nowhere else in Alberta does a progressive vote really count for anything but $1.75.
"I feel like part of the MSM now, reporting on a poll, but this one was interesting."
The key difference is that the MSM are required by Elections Canada to report the sample size, the margin of error and who commissioned the poll.
But I guess if the data supports your point of view, then who cares about the rest, eh?
It doesn't matter why Duffy did it. We have heard since day one that May was running in third place. One just had to check DemocraticSPACE to know where her 3rd place spot is.
What is interesting here, is that with all the media attention, easy-press lobs, strategic voting sites favouring her, funds for "free advertising", and 2 national debates under her belt, she is still sitting in 3rd place.
If the Lorifice campaign had been given that kind of favoritism, she'd be way ahead in number 1. And that reality is also so very sad.
I will say this: there are some very powerful people in Canada that saw Central Novians as "stupid" and easily manipulated. How wrong they were.
Fair enough Jim. I was just going to put the Duffy video up but the MOE is +/- 4.9%. For both polls.
I don't think that changes my point: That the NDP candidate has a better shot in this riding than May.
Which poll are you referring to?
Because "Metro Halifax/CTV" released a poll today that had somewhat different numbers:
McKay 39
May 22
Lorefice 19
I think Ms. May is the type of person that would step down in order to defeat McKay. Except that as national leader this would hurt all the other Green candidates too much.
On the other hand if Lorefice stepped down...
I voted NDP for a large portion of my life but the reality is that they will forever be, or be depicted as, the party of labour and will never gain wide enough support.
The other reason is that if push came to shove I think they would choose jobs over environment which I view as just as bad as choosing profits over environment.
Geez... thanks for going and taking all of the fun out of the Central Nova race... ;)
Once again Well's first rule of Canadian politics comes into play... the least exciting outcome is the most likely one. MacKay gets re-elected, the NDP will finish second and May, whatever her merits, will be shown to have no strategic sense whatsoever.
Lonecrow, that poll was conducted by the same company (must have been the next day) and still has the NDP and Greens in a statistical tie. With 19% undecided and the other poll about Liberal voter intentions, I would say that Lorifice still has better chances than May.
I understand that Erin's numbers are correct. It even shows on both democraticspace and votefortheliberal I mean environment that she is running third. That's old news.
Surprise news
May sells out her base - so the worm turns (may Lorifice win!) and may all Greens get a leader who isn't willing to sell out her base to support a liberal who let green house gases grow while he was Minister of the environment and doing nothing.
May endorses strategic voting for ridings where races are close
One of the problems with strategic voting is that one assumes that all 1st choice "progressive" voters will choice another progressive party as their second or third choices if needed such as in Central Nova. Based on second choice preferences in EKOS polls, a small group of Liberals may instead choose the Conservatives, NDP, or not vote at all instead of vote for the Green Party. Strategic voting does not work because progressive voters are not a unified bloc.
In this regard 47% said they would vote NDP in the poll. When survival is one's main concern in life and ensuring one has enough to feed the kids - bread and butter issues - the Green brand does not sell.
1. Polls are for dogs.
2. The poll you are quoting has May tied for 2nd. She is within the declared margin of error.
3. The media is framing this race as May v. MacKay. People believe it. The only ones trying to frame this race as an NDP v. CPC contest are the Tories, who want to split the progressive vote.
NDPers in Central Nova should vote Green if they don't want a Tory MP.
I have another perspective, just for fun. First, I think that Jack Layton and the NDP have run a very successful campaign and they should do very well in the election. I also wish NDP candidates across the country the very best of luck on Tuesday.
Imagine, though, even amongst all this success, if Elizabeth had not run in Central Nova, is there anyone out there who believes that an NDP candidate, new to the riding, was remotely capable of besting Peter Mackay? For me, that is a real stretch. The only reason that CN is a race at all is because Elizabeth is there. Now that the Conservative numbers are dropping like the autumn leaves, we will have to wait and see where those votes shift.
This is one election where we can legitimately argue that last weeks polls are only documenting history rather than being predictive.
Just to respond to a comment of Ian, I'm sorry but strategic voting is important in Alberta. That's the unfortunate reality. I fnd the average person who is does not follow party politics, can be seperated into two groups in ALberta. Conservative, or ABC, (Anything but conservative.)
In places such as Linda Duncan's riding we should support the NDP, in places like Millwoods, we should support the Liberals. That's reality.
This is just my opinion, but in some ridings the Liberals and NDP just have to bury their differences and stop fighting each other.
Strategic voting should have an entirely different meaning in elections now with the new financing laws. Where each party gets annual funding from the federal government based on the number of votes cast in the last election, every vote counts.
By accumulating votes, even in ridings where there is no hope of winning, Green Party and NDP supporters can ensure the future institutional capacity of their party to launch future elections and maintain a national standing and presence.
By accumulating only 1000 votes in every riding, the party would receive funding of more than $300,000 per year. This is substantial and could mean future success.
Strategic voting for the NDP and Greens means looking to the long term ... not just this election.
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